What do the experts predict for New Tampa home sales for the remainder of 2011?

Sales in 33647 are down 17.2% from June of last year. That's a big drop, but it's not as large of a drop as in some zip codes in Tampa Bay. 

The challenge with predicting future sales for New Tampa is that the area has been undergoing a saw-tooth recovery since July of 2010 - existing home sales volumes are up and down every month. Generally, the trend is positive, with sales increasing more than decreasing. But it's still not easy to tell exactly where the market is going..

Part of the reason for this is the fact that the median sold price of single family homes in New Tampa over the last 12 months is $239,000 - 74.5% more than the county-wide median of $137,000. That puts New Tampa well outside of the price range that is affordable to most first time home buyers and investors. The housing market this year has been sustained by first-time home buyer and investor activity, so absent the kind of product that appeals to bargain hunters, the volume of sales in New Tampa has been unpredictable and unremarkable.

But what New Tampa has always had going for it is the proportionally-lower number of distressed sales. Many communities in Tampa Bay have seen distressed sales (short sales and foreclosures) in excess of 50% of all sales. New Tampa has experienced a distressed sales volume of 35.5% of all sales over the last year. That's a lot by historic standards, but it's way below the county average of 49%.

And the benefit of a lower number of distressed sales is there's less of a downward pull exerted on median home prices when fewer sales are discount-priced foreclosures. In fact, while throughout Hillsborough County, distressed sales closed at a median price that was 51% of the median conventional sale price, distressed sales in Tampa Palms closed at a median price that was 71% of the median conventional sale price.

In short, Tampa Palms fared substantially better than most of Hillsborough county over the last 12 months and if we can develop a more normalized pattern of sales going forward, we should be looking at healthy price recovery for the later half of 2011.

What do the experts predict for New Tampa home sales for the remainder of the calendar year?

Any neighborhood with a lower number of distressed sales is a good neighborhood (remember, distressed sales pull down the value of homes at a quicker rate than conventional sales). So when we look across the New Tampa Landscape, a few homes jump out as super-stable communities:

- Richmond Place has had only 1 - that's right - 1 - single family distressed sale over the last 12 months.That makes it far and away the most stable community in New Tampa
- Hunter's Green and Arbor Green - by comparison, are the second most stable single family home communities, and they each have 15 distressed sales.
- Live Oak Preserve is by far the least stable community with 48 distressed sales over the last 12 months.

Here's how distressed sales effect median prices on a neighborhood level:

1. Richmond Place's median sold price per sq/ft of $100 over the last 12 months has never fallen below $77 per sq.ft
2. Hunter's Green - Median sold price per sq/ft of $97 over the last 12 months fluctuated wildly between $69/sq.ft and $118/sq.ft
3. Arbor Green's median sold price per sq/ft of $103 over the last 12 months was spread out between $96/sq.ft and $117/sq.ft
4. Live Oak Preserve's median sold price of $80 per sq/ft over the last 12 months was all over the board between $104/sq.ft and $75/sq.ft

So if you're looking for stable communities without big-scary swings in comparable sales, then stick to the communities with the fewest foreclosures.

How does New Tampa fit into the overall real estate picture for the Tampa Bay region? 

New Tampa has experienced the same proportional drops in home values as the rest of Tampa Bay. The  lower-than-average rate of distressed sales in the area means that stabilization will happen there sooner than other parts of the region.

But without the huge incidence of foreclosures, it also doesn't have the same potential for a rapid rebound in prices as foreclosures dry up. So home prices may not appreciate as rapidly as other parts of the Tampa Bay.

Still, unless you're an investor, stabilization is what you want - not a rapid rebound. We are talking about housing, after all - not race-horses - and this asset class should never "rapidly" go anywhere. Growth in the housing sector should always be slow and stable: that's the best way to avoid catastrophe.